CHICAGO— Recent patterns in consumer credit risk suggest a “growing divide” among U.S. consumers, as some demonstrate “heightened financial resilience while others face mounting challenges,” according to TransUnion’s new Q3 2025 Credit Industry Insights Report (CIIR).
The analysis further reveals how these shifts are influencing lending behaviors across key credit markets, according to the company.
“Recent trends in consumer credit risk distribution show a steady increase in the percentage of individuals classified in the lowest risk super prime credit risk tier, rising from 37.1% in Q3 2019 to 40.9% in Q3 2025,” TransUnion said. “This increase in the share of super prime borrowers occurred as the overall credit market expanded, with the total number of super prime borrowers now approximately 16 million higher than in 2019. This upward movement reflects continued financial stability among top-tier consumers.
A Gradual Return
“At the same time, the subprime segment has gradually returned to pre-pandemic levels after notable declines in 2020 and 2021, when many consumers were able to pay down debt and reduce credit account delinquencies during a period of reduced expenses and pandemic-related relief programs,” TransUnion added.
Added Jason Laky, EVP and head of financial services, in a statement, “We are seeing a divergence in consumer credit risk, with more individuals moving toward either end of the credit risk spectrum. While super prime has steadily grown since the pandemic, subprime has returned to pre-pandemic levels—leaving the middle tiers increasingly thinner. This shift suggests that while many consumers are navigating the current economic climate well, others may be facing financial strain.”
What Can be Clearly Seen
TransUnion said the movement toward super prime and subprime tiers is clearly reflected in recent activity across the credit card and auto lending markets.
“Year-over-year growth in new account originations and total balances was strongest in these two tiers, far outpacing all others,” the company said. “This divergence in credit behavior highlights evolving consumer dynamics and underscores the importance of tailored risk strategies across the credit spectrum.”
