WASHINGTON—A group of credit union economists has offered a preview of what they expect for economic performance during Q4.
Curt Long, chief economist and vice president of data and research with America’s Credit Unions, who is a member of a group of about half a dozen CU economists who issue joint forecasts, said the group will provide a more formal and longer analysis in several weeks. For now, it is predicting GDP growth for 2025 will come in at 1.8% and that the unemployment rate will rise to 4.5% by year-end.
It is also anticipating several more rate cuts by the Fed before 2025 closes out.
The government shutdown has clouded the crystal ball for many forecasters due to a lack of regularly reported economic data, but on Friday it is expected to release numbers related to the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Called Back Into the Office
“We don’t have a lot of government data at our disposal right now, so that probably carries a little bit more weight than it otherwise would,” Long said. “However, the (Federal Open Market Committee) has indicated that they’re on a path toward cutting rates more this year. Markets expect a couple more rate cuts, so we’re not out of step with the broader expectations.”
Long said the CPI data is being released because it is needed to adjust things like Social Security payments, so some Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) staff have been called back into the office to get the report out.
