CHICAGO–The U.S. mortgage market showed some indicators of renewed activity during Q3, with originations climbing 8.8% year-over-year, according to TransUnion’s latest Credit Industry Insights Report, which also reveals an uptick in delinquencies.
As the CU Daily has been reporting, much of the increase has been driven by a surge in rate-and-term refinances—up 101% from a year ago—and a 23% jump in cash-out refinances, as moderating interest rates and improving affordability conditions enticed more borrowers back into the market, the TransUnion data show.
“Mortgage activity is showing signs of recovery, supported by improving affordability conditions,” Satyan Merchant, senior vice president and mortgage business leader at TransUnion, said in a statement. “We remain closely attuned to the potential for further rate reductions should the Federal Reserve proceed with additional cuts. At the same time, rising delinquency rates—particularly within certain borrower segments—underscore the importance of maintaining a vigilant and proactive approach to risk monitoring and portfolio management.”
The Data Points
According to TransUnion:
- The average loan amount for new mortgages reached $371,467 in Q2 2025, up from $347,692 a year earlier.
- Total mortgage balances across all consumers climbed to $12.7 trillion, a $400 billion increase over the same period.
- Consumer-level delinquency rate (60+ days past due) rose to 1.36%, compared to 1.24% in Q3 2024.
- FHA loans continued to account for the largest share of delinquencies, but VA loans saw the sharpest increase, up 35% year-over-year
- Gen Z borrowers emerged as a notable force in the home equity space.
