WASHINGTON— The impact of artificial intelligence on the U.S. job market is beginning to emerge in economic data, but remains modest and more complex than widely feared, according to new reports from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
The findings come amid heightened debate over whether AI will displace large numbers of workers, with Axios reporting that early evidence points to both job losses and job creation tied to the technology.
Goldman Sachs analyzed occupation-level federal data, categorizing jobs based on their exposure to AI — including roles that can be largely substituted by automation, such as proofreading, and those that are complemented by AI, such as medical professions requiring human judgment.
The Goldman Sachs Findings
Goldman Sachs’ analysis found that AI:
- Reduced employment in jobs more easily replaced by automation, contributing to a 0.16 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate
- Lowered unemployment by 0.06 percentage point in roles that are augmented by AI, where human skills remain essential
- Overall, AI increased the unemployment rate by about 0.1 percentage point, the analysis found.
Joseph Briggs told Axios that focusing solely on job displacement misses the broader picture of how AI is reshaping work.
The Morgan Stanley Findings
Morgan Stanley reached a similar conclusion, estimating AI has added no more than 10 basis points — or 0.1 percentage point — to the unemployment rate, Axios reported.
The bank described AI’s effect on labor demand as “double-edged,” noting that the same technology that automates tasks can also enhance worker productivity and create new opportunities.
Axios pointed to the field of radiology as an example of how predictions about AI-driven job loss have not materialized as expected. A decade after prominent warnings that AI would replace radiologists, employment and wages in the field have both increased as professionals incorporate AI tools into their work.
At the same time, corporate messaging around AI may be shaping perceptions of its labor impact, according to the report. Morgan Stanley’s analysis of earnings call transcripts found companies are more likely to emphasize AI-driven job cuts than hiring tied to the technology, Axios reported.
‘Not Definitive Proof’
The bank suggested that trend may reflect investor expectations, with companies highlighting efficiency gains to appeal to markets.
“Transcript momentum should be read as directional, not definitive proof of incremental job losses,” Morgan Stanley said, according to Axios.
The Axios analysis concluded that while AI is beginning to influence employment trends, its overall effect on the labor market remains limited so far and reflects a balance between displacement and augmentation rather than widespread job loss.
