ST. PETERSBURG, Fla.–To mark the fifth anniversary of the Velera Payments Index, the company said it is making some changes in the report that offers economic and member spending behavior updates. 

Effective with the April edition, Velera said the Payments Index will retain its “monthly cadence,” but will introduce a new quarterly format: a “base” edition followed by two months of Deep Dive reports. 

“Velera is excited to launch the next evolution of our Payments Index, one of the credit union industry’s best resources for timely data and insights on payment transactions. The evolution of this monthly report has been extraordinary; since its origin as a weekly transaction tracker throughout the first year of the pandemic, the Payments Index has emerged as one of Velera’s key pieces of thought leadership, offering actionable data, insightful trend analysis and prescriptive content for credit unions,” President and CEO Chuck Fagan said in a statement. “I would also like to recognize Velera’s outstanding marketing and communications and Advisors Plus teams for their ongoing collaborative efforts in bringing these insights to life for our credit unions and our industry. We look forward to the continued evolution of the Payments Index and helping credit unions make strategic, data-informed decisions to fuel growth.”

What Report Shows

Among the items noted in the newest Payments Index: 

 President Trump’s Tariffs

“On April 2, President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on imports from all nations that trade with the United States, with a 10% baseline tariff that took effect on April 9. Though a 90-day pause has been placed on most tariffs, those targeting China remain in place, fueling increased uncertainty and anticipated price increases,” Velera stated. “Consumer sentiment continues to erode, while both economists and Fortune 50 CEOs warn of the ripple effects – rising inflation, higher unemployment and the possibility of a recession if trade flows are significantly disrupted. While the impact of tariffs is not yet reflected in our March data, it is certainly weighing on consumers’ minds and beginning to influence spending behavior.”

The report further states that early signs suggest that American consumers may be stockpiling essential imported goods in anticipation of price increases. 

Consumer Confidence

The Consumer Confidence Index declined for the fourth consecutive month in March to 92.9, with less optimism in the area of future business conditions and future income, the new Index notes.

“The 7.2-point drop was primarily driven by consumers 55 and older and followed by those aged 35 to 55,” the company said. “The decline was across most income levels with one exception: those earning more than $125,000 per year. The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped 11% from March to 50.8 in April – its second-lowest level in history – and has lost more than 34% year over year. Consumers across all ages, income and political demographics expressed pessimism and concern over anticipated upcoming price surges.”

Consumer Price Index

Velera pointed to the Labor Department’s April 10 update in which the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased 0.1% in March, bringing the cumulative 12-month rate of inflation up to 2.4%. 

Specifically, the CPI data show:

• The Energy index dropped 2.4%, which was led by a 6.3% decline in the Gasoline index.
• Food increased by 0.4%, with the indexes for food at home up 0.5% and food away from home increasing 0.4% over the month. 
• Core CPI, which excludes the Food and Energy sectors, increased by 0.1% in March following a 0.2% decrease in February, bringing the 12-month Core CPI to 2.8% – the smallest 12-month increase since March 2021.

Employment

In March, jobs grew by 228,000, with increases in healthcare, social assistance and transportation and warehousing, federal data show.  Federal government workers declined by 4,000 in March, following a decline of 11,000 in February as a result of cuts being made by DOGE.

“The overall jobs increase was larger than expected, as economists anticipated growth of roughly 130,000. February’s job growth numbers were downwardly revised by 34,000 to 117,000,” the Velera report states. “The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported the overall unemployment rate increased slightly for March to 4.2%, or 7.1 million people, and has hovered between 4.0% and 4.2% since May 2024. On a positive note, the labor force participation rate has maintained at 62.5% since December 2023.”

Interest Rates

“On April 4, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that interest rate changes have a “highly uncertain outlook” as higher-than-expected tariffs are likely to raise inflation and lower economic growth, the extent of which is uncertain,” Velera said in its update. “While the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings end on May 7, there have been signals that the earliest a rate change could occur would be with the June meeting that concludes on June 18.”

Takeaways From Card Spend Data

According to Valera, key takeaways for March related to member card spend include:

• “Growth rates softened for debit in March and moderated for credit. Debit purchases were up 4.0% and credit purchases were up 2.0%. Debit transactions were up 2.3% and credit transactions were up 2.1%,” the company said. “The Goods sector was the top contributor to growth in debit purchases, followed by Money Services, with these two sectors accounted for just over 70% of the year-over-year increase.”
• For credit purchases, the Services sector was the largest contributor to growth for March. Within Services, insurance sales/premiums were the top merchant category, up 8.8% compared to March 2024.”
• “Leaving the swipes and dips behind, contactless ‘tap-and-go’ transactions now make up over half of all Card Present transactions on contactless cards,” the company said. “Digital wallets also continue to grow in popularity, with 9.9% of all debit transactions (CP & CNP) taking place via a digital wallet and 5.6% of all credit transactions (CP & CNP) via a digital wallet for March 2025.
• Overall credit card delinquencies for March 2025 were 2.31%, down 0.11% year over year, according to the Index. “After peaking in January 2024 at 2.67%, growth in the delinquency rate has softened each month since the peak with an average reduction of 0.11% for each month of 2025.”

The full report is available for download here