WASHINGTON– Total home sales are forecast at 4.74 million units for 2025, relatively steady compared to last month’s forecast of 4.85 million units, according to the August 2025 Economic and Housing Outlook from the Fannie Mae (FNMA/OTCQB) Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group.
The Forecast
According to the new Fannie Mae forecast:
- It has revised its real gross domestic product (GDP) growth outlook for 2025 and 2026 to 1.1% and 2.2% on a Q4/Q4 basis, compared to 1.3% and 2.3% in its prior forecast, respectively.
- It now expects the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise 3.3% Q4/Q4 in 2025, up from our July forecast of 3.0%. The outlook for 2026 is 2.6%, down from 2.7% previously. Core CPI is expected to rise 3.3% Q4/Q4 in 2025 (up from 3.2% previously) and 2.6% in 2026 (down from 2.7% previously).
- It is forecasting mortgage rates to end 2025 and 2026 at 6.5% and 6.1%, respectively, up from 6.4 and 6.0% in our prior forecast.
- its total home sales outlook for 2025 was revised to 4.74 million, down from 4.85 million previously. Its 2026 home sales projection is 5.23 million, down from 5.35 million previously.
- It is projecting mortgage originations to rise to $1.85 trillion and $2.26 trillion, respectively, for 2025 and 2026, compared to its previous forecast of $1.92 trillion and $2.34 trillion, respectively.
