Consumer Confidence Declines as Rise in Inflation is Expected

WASHINGTON–With the potential to affect credit union members’ spending and savings habits, a new consumer survey finds Americans are bracing for higher prices and renewed inflation. 

The consumer survey from the University of Michigan and market-based measures of investors’ expectations, however, does not suggest that price pressures are perceived to be on the “verge of spiraling out of control,” according to an analysis by the New York Times.

Decline in Confidence

Still, as the Times noted, a survey from the Conference Board showed that consumer confidence fell sharply in February and inflation expectations rose as Americans expressed worries about the surging price of eggs and the potential impact of tariffs.

“This is the kind of thing that can unnerve a policymaker,” Jonathan Pingle, who used to work at the Fed and is now chief economist at UBS, said about the overarching trend in inflation expectations in comments to the Times. “We don’t want inflation expectations moving up so much that it makes the Fed’s job harder to get inflation back to 2%.”

Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

As the Times noted, and as credit union economists have also shared in the past, keeping inflation expectations in check as crucial to controlling inflation itself. 

“That’s because beliefs about where prices are headed can become a self-fulfilling prophecy: If workers expect the cost of living to rise, they will demand raises to compensate; if businesses expect the cost of materials and labor to rise, they will increase their own prices in anticipation,” the Times stated. “That can make it much harder for the Fed to bring inflation to heel.”

The  University of Michigan survey found consumer inflation fears are widespread, but also tend to be higher among Democrats since the election, but have fallen among Republicans.

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