SAN DIEGO — Credit unions are more optimistic about their auto finance portfolios than they were nine months ago, but most expect President Donald Trump’s tariffs will dampen vehicle sales, according to a new survey from Credit Union Leasing of America (CULA).
The survey, conducted among 119 credit union professionals from late June through early August, found that 71% reported auto financing this year has either increased (58%) or remained stable (13%) compared with 2024. At the same time, 77% of respondents said they were somewhat (58%) or very (19%) optimistic about the auto finance landscape through the end of 2025, up from 57% who reported optimism in the third quarter of 2024, according to the company.
Despite the brighter outlook, CULA found 85% of credit unions said they believe Trump’s tariffs will cause consumers to delay purchases, and 65% expect the trade policy will lead to lower vehicle sales.
Only 21% of respondents predicted Trump would soften his stance and stabilize the market.
Concerns & Expectations
“While credit unions’ positive outlook has increased, these survey results reveal that they also have concerns about the impact of tariffs on vehicle sales, as well as an expectation that vehicle prices will rise, creating affordability issues that, they expect, will drive more consumers to choose a vehicle lease in the next six months,” CULA President Ken Sopp said in a statement.
CULA said affordability continues to be a key factor driving leasing activity, echoing its earlier consumer survey.
Seventy-five percent of credit union professionals expect more consumers will turn to leases rather than loans over the next six months. Rising consumer prices and a higher cost of living were cited as the main drivers of leasing growth.
The company noted data from Experian showed leasing grew from 23.71% in the first quarter of 2024 to 24.69% in the first quarter of 2025.
The More Pessimistic View
Of those who are not optimistic about the remainder of 2025, tariffs were cited as the leading concern, with delinquencies, inflation and high interest rates also weighing heavily. CULA said it found:
- 71% of respondents said they expect vehicle prices to climb over the next 12 months
- 49% expect credit standards to tighten
- 42% said inventory will likely continue to fall
- 21% anticipate further interest rate hikes
Additional Findings
CULA further found 84% of respondents said they expect their auto finance portfolios to grow (53%) or remain stable (31%) in the next six months, while 16% foresee a decline.
“The optimism expressed about their auto finance future by the majority of credit unions surveyed, even in the face of some market headwinds, is encouraging – and typical of credit unions,” Chris Harper, CULA’s director of business development, said in a statement. “Their expectation that their portfolios will grow in the next six months aligns with what we are seeing; and, as we partner with credit unions to help more of their members into vehicle leases, we are delighted to support that growth.”
Key Findings
The company said key findings from the survey include:
- 65% expect tariffs to drive a decrease in vehicle sales.
- 71% reported auto financing has increased (58%) or stayed the same (13%) compared with last year.
- 84% expect their auto finance portfolios to grow (53%) or remain stable (31%) in the next six months.
- 77% said they are optimistic about the auto finance landscape through 2025.
- 71% expect vehicle prices to rise over the next 12 months.
- 75% expect more consumers to lease vehicles rather than take out loans.
