AUSTIN, Texas–A cooling U.S. housing market could offer some relief to buyers in 2026, with home prices projected to decline in 22 of the nation’s 100 largest cities and mortgage rates expected to edge lower, according to a new report from Realtor.com.
The forecast suggests the market will shift toward the “most balanced” conditions seen since before the pandemic, with neither buyers nor sellers holding a clear advantage, Jake Krimmel, a senior economist at Realtor.com, said in a statement.
“It’s going to show a lot of signs of getting back on track to what we consider to be normal,” Krimmel said, adding that lower borrowing costs paired with strong wage growth should draw more buyers into the market.
Rates, Sales Expected to Tick Upward
Realtor.com said mortgage rates are projected to average 6.3% next year, down slightly from 2025’s 6.6% average, according to the analysis. Though still elevated by historical standards, even modest relief is expected to lift sales.
Realtor.com noted that existing-home transactions are forecast to rise to 4.13 million in 2026, an increase of less than 2% from this year’s projected 4.07 million sales. After a largely stagnant market in 2025, any upward movement signals stabilization, Krimmel noted.
Other industry analysts share a similar outlook. Zillow projects existing-home sales will climb to nearly 4.3 million next year, a 4.3% jump from its 2025 estimate, as inventory expands and mortgage rates hover just above 6%, CBS News reported.
Where Prices Are Expected to Fall
According to Realtor.com, most of the cities expected to see price drops are in the Southeast and the West, including seven of Florida’s eight largest metropolitan areas. Miami is the lone exception.
Florida markets are forecast to lead the nation in price declines:
- Cape Coral–Fort Lauderdale: down 10.2%
- North Port–Sarasota–Bradenton: down 8.9%
The metros facing declines generally have rising inventory and moderating demand, Krimmel said, especially compared with the pandemic-era buying surge fueled by cheap borrowing and remote-work shifts.
“These places … saw a huge frenzy during the pandemic, so part of what we are projecting is that demand continuing to come back down to earth,” he told CBS News.
Most Cities Will Still See Modest Price Gains
Prices are projected to rise in 78 of the top 100 cities, though increases will likely remain modest. Realtor.com estimates a median price gain of 4% across those markets.
To develop its 2026 forecast, Realtor.com said it analyzed inventory trends, new construction, home price growth, wage conditions, job gains and unemployment across the nation’s largest urban areas.
