ATLANTA–Cox Automotive has revisited its 2025 forecast for the used and wholesale vehicle markets, which are key to credit union auto lending, and found a stability it had not previously foreseen.

In its Mid-Year Review, Cox Automotive said the used market is proving to be much more stable, with consumers opting for used vehicles due to uncertainty about tariffs remaining at current levels. 

Cox Automotive is projecting that used-vehicle sales will reach 20.1 million in 2025, which is an estimated 1.2% increase compared to 2024.

“Sales growth is expected to remain muted, as retail and wholesale supply will continue to be constrained in the coming year due to lower production during the pandemic and fewer lease maturities returning to the market,” according to the company.

Appreciating Prices

Its forecast states that with the increased pressure on the cost of new units, used-vehicle values, as measured by the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, are expected to experience more appreciation in 2025 than seen over the last few years. 

Cox Automotive noted that before the announcement of tariffs, the forecast had the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index ending December 2025 up 1.4% from the end of 2024, slightly below the long-term average rise of 2.3%. In March, the forecast was revised upward to an increase of 2.1%, due to the condition of the used retail supply and the anticipation that a greater number of consumers will shift from purchasing new vehicles to used ones. 

A New Projection

“Given the volatility observed in the market over the last quarter, coupled with stronger year-over-year comparisons in the latter half of 2025, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index is now projected to be 1.8% higher year over year in December 2025, just below its long-term run rate,” the company said.