FOSTER CITY, Calif. — Predictions of a cashless world have circulated for decades, but physical money remains deeply embedded in the global economy, with roughly $11 trillion in cash still in circulation worldwide, according to a new outlook from Visa.
The estimate, included in Visa’s 2026 outlook, underscores both the durability of cash and the scale of the opportunity for digital payments growth. Visa said the sheer volume of physical currency still in use highlights how entrenched cash remains in daily commerce, particularly across large parts of the developing world.
‘Not Going to Disappear’
“Paper money is not going to disappear any time soon since there is just so much of it still around the globe,” Oliver Jenkyn, Visa’s group president, said in a statement, citing the $11 trillion estimate. “And this will fuel innovation and growth in digital payments in many countries for years to come.”
Still, Visa said the long-term trajectory is shifting. Jenkyn said 2026 is expected to mark the first year in which half of the world’s total consumer payments are made using card credentials, signaling a gradual but significant bend in the global “cash curve.”
Analysis from PYMNTS Intelligence suggests the transition away from cash is less about changing consumer preferences and more about changing form factors. Rather than plastic cards or banknotes, mobile phones are increasingly becoming the primary interface for spending.
‘Critical Role’
Cash continues to play a critical role in informal economies, small-dollar transactions and regions with limited or uneven access to banking services. Even in advanced economies, consumers often rely on cash for budgeting, privacy or when digital payment options introduce friction, noted PYMNTS Intelligence.
The decline in cash use, however, is becoming more pronounced as digital alternatives outperform physical money on speed, convenience and acceptance. PYMNTS Intelligence said consumers are increasingly moving away from cash for practical reasons, with mobile wallets reducing checkout friction through tap-to-pay and scan-based transactions.
