By Stacy Augustine

In a moment of synchronicity that would be amusing if it weren’t for the real-life consequences, the news of the firing of NCUA board members Todd Harper and Tanya Otsuka by the Trump administration in April came out during economist and futurist Rebecca Ryan’s “Fire Drills for the Future” workshop at NACUSO’s Reimagine Conference. 

Credit union leaders can’t just hope for the best anymore. What we need now is a mindset shift from stability-based planning to resilience-based readiness. And that’s where scenario planning comes in: not as a buzzword, but as a discipline for navigating a future that refuses to play by past rules.

Whether you’re at a $30 million or $30 billion credit union, a rural cooperative or a leading-edge innovator built for scale, the question is the same: Are you prepared for these scenarios?

Market and Economic Conditions

Macroeconomic shifts—some slow-building, others sudden—can hit credit unions from multiple directions. Consider how any of these might play out in your strategic landscape:

• Auto market disruption: Tariffs could spike new vehicle prices, fueling a boom in used car financing—if your underwriting, pricing, and risk appetite are ready.
• Material cost inflation: A hike in construction materials could dramatically slow lending associated with renovations and housing rehab.
• Labor volatility: A tightening unskilled labor force might destabilize sectors like agriculture or manufacturing—particularly if you’re deeply tied to a local employer base.
• “Flight to safety” deposits: In times of uncertainty, surging deposits can strain capital and net worth if not carefully managed.
• Economic downturns: Layoffs and reduced member spending can hit both asset quality and loan growth targets.
• Unexpected growth: Economic booms aren’t always good news—soaring housing and living costs may erode affordability for the communities you serve.

‘Real Pain’

Even something as specific as the loss of participation loan sources—due to consolidation, strategic shifts, or regulation—could create real pain for credit unions relying on them to support growth and liquidity.

Credit Union-Specific Strategic Risks

Some threats come not from the broader economy, but from within—or from gaps in our own assumptions:

• Loss of a sponsor or SEG: For single-sponsor credit unions, a merger or relocation can jeopardize the very foundation of membership.
• Losing CDFI certification: For credit unions who rely on federal funding to support lending, this scenario isn’t hypothetical—it’s already happening for some.
• Reputation hits: A perceived lending disparity, technology failure, or overlooked member service issue can go viral in today’s environment—and erode long-earned trust.
• Staff disruption: High turnover can reduce not just service continuity, but also cultural cohesion and strategic focus.
• Entering new markets without insight: Moving into a community without understanding its dynamics can lead to loan losses and a loss of credibility.

Competitive Pressures

The pace of disruption isn’t slowing, and your competitors are no longer just banks or credit unions:

• AI-powered fintechs are reshaping how consumers borrow, spend, and save—often without ever stepping into a branch.
• Large credit unions or banks could expand into your market, bringing scale, marketing muscle, and digital advantages.
• Indirect lending disruption: If the dealer financing model shifts, the volume you’ve relied on could vanish overnight.

Legislative and Regulatory Shocks

Even well-managed credit unions can get caught off guard by a policy pivot:

• Student loan programs could be scaled back or altered in structure.
• ITIN lending restrictions could cut off access to safe credit for members you’ve long served—and change your risk profile overnight.
• Credit union tax exemption might not be sacred forever; are you modeling the financial impact?
• Immigration enforcement or deportation waves could destabilize community trust—and loan repayment.

What Now?

This isn’t about fear. It’s about foresight. Scenario planning doesn’t require you to guess the future—it asks you to engage with it. It pushes you to test your strategy against what might happen, so you can lead with agility and clarity no matter what does.

And yes, some of these scenarios are sensitive. That’s exactly why they belong in your leadership and board discussions. These are the very issues that will shape member needs, credit union identity, and long-term viability. If you’re not talking about them now, when will you?

Stacy Augustine is the President of CU Strategic Planning, which works with community development and mission-driven credit unions to change the lives of their members and communities. The firm has certified more than 200 credit unions as CDFIs and secured over $1 billion in award funds. Ms. Augustine can be reached at [email protected]