CHICAGO–Mortgage originations are expected to continue expanding through 2026, driven by improving affordability, easing mortgage rates, and sustained consumer demand, according to TransUnion’s latest credit industry forecast.
TransUnion is projecting purchase mortgage originations will increase 4.0% in 2026, while refinance activity is expected to rise 4.2%, extending a rebound that began after originations fell to near-record lows earlier in the decade.
“These gains reflect gradual normalization in housing finance conditions, as borrowers respond to more favorable rate environments and improved housing inventory,” TransUnion said. “Recent performance data reinforces that upward trajectory, as mortgage originations rose 6.5% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2025, fueled by stronger purchase demand and a 25.7% increase in rate-and-term refinances, which marked the eighth consecutive quarter of refinance growth.”
Purchase loans accounted for approximately 80% of total originations, underscoring the continued dominance of purchase activity, even as refinance volume recovers, TransUnion added.
Improved ‘Affordability’
“As we move through 2026, easing 30‑year mortgage rates should improve affordability for both buyers and refinancers,” Satyan Merchant, senior vice president, automotive and mortgage business leader at TransUnion. “Homeowners are also tapping accumulated equity, with home‑equity originations posting a sixth straight quarter of growth. We’re seeing further signs of normalization as inventory reaches its most balanced levels in nearly a decade. We’re encouraged by the momentum created by falling rates, increased supply, and strong equity positions. Overall, the outlook remains positive as long as stakeholders stay focused and responsive.”
The Key Variable
TransUnion added that easing rates should improve affordability for both buyers and refinancers, while increased housing supply and elevated homeowner equity positions are helping support transaction activity and lending demand.
