New Jobs Numbers Mean Fed Likely to Leave Rates Unchanged, Says America’s CUs’ Economist

WASHINGTON–Hiring was modest in December, even as the unemployment rate declined, according to new federal data.

Employers added 50,000 jobs in the last month of 2025 and the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, the data showed. For the full year, U.S. employment growth in 2025 was the weakest since the recession in 2020, the data reveal. 

Dawit Kebede

“The economy averaged just 49,000 jobs added in 2025 compared to 168,000 in 2024, a decline that signals weakening demand for hiring, with December’s jobs coming in below expectations and prior months revised down,” said America’s Credit Unions Chief Economist Dawit Kebede. “On the other hand, the unemployment rate declined to 4.4% from 4.6% in November. With solid economic growth continuing and the unemployment rate actually falling despite weak hiring and slower labor supply growth, the Fed will likely hold rates steady rather than cut, and markets are now pricing in the first rate cut for June. Credit unions remain America’s steady financial partner regardless of the shifts in the greater economic picture and stand ready to support their members.” 

The December figure was a slight decrease from November’s 56,000 gain. The Wall Street Journal noted many economists had been expecting an increase of 73,000.

Data Points

The new Labor Department data show:

  • Overall, employers added 584,000 new jobs in 2025—or about 49,000 jobs a month, on average, a significant slowdown from 2024, when the economy added two million jobs, or approximately168,000 a month. 
  • 2025 saw the lowest pace of average monthly job growth since 2003.
  • December’s job growth was concentrated in the healthcare and leisure and hospitality sectors, with retail, transportation and warehousing all cutting jobs. 
  • October’s job losses were revised even lower in Friday’s report, to a decline of 173,000. November’s job gains were also revised down, meaning employment was 76,000 lower than previously reported in those two months.
  • The number of job openings was down nearly 900,000 in November compared with a year earlier, the Labor Department said earlier this week, another indicator of a cooling job market, the Wall Street Journal noted. 
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