WASHINGTON–The risk to global trade should be considered a “salient” to the financial system and the broader global economy, according to 73% of respondents to a Federal Reserve survey on financial stability.
That figure is up considerably from as recently as the Fall of 2024, when 33% of those surveyed by the Federal Reserve gave it the same risk level.
The results are included in the Fed’s April 2025 Financial Stability Report, with respondents including researchers, academics, and market contacts conducted from February to early April.
The Fed noted, however, that the “vast majority” of survey responses were received before April 2, when President Donald Trump announced his steep new tariffs.
The Findings
The most frequently cited topics in the responses, the Fed survey found, included:
- Risks to global trade, policy uncertainty (50%, up from 46% in late 2024)
- U.S. fiscal debt sustainability (50%, down from 54%).
- Persistent inflation (41%, up from 33%)
- Corrections in asset markets (36%, up from 29%).
The Fed that despite those risks, financial stability, at least for now, is not wavering.
The Fed added that the four areas it uses for gauging financial system vulnerabilities that may affect financial stability include asset valuations, borrowing by businesses and households, leverage in the financial sector and funding risks.
