PORTLAND, Ore.–A broad overview of what’s taking place in the economy and what could lie ahead was shared with credit unions here by a national TV journalist.
Ron Insana, a financial journalist and senior analyst with CNBC who has spent four decades covering economic news, shared with the GoWest Credit Union Association’s MAXX Conference what he called a “top-down” view of a variety of economic issues.
Here’s some of what Insana had to say, after stressing he isn’t talking politics but policy when it comes to the economy.
The Overall Economy
“We are moving into what’s now being called the K-shaped economy,” he said, a reference to an economy in which some people are doing very well but many aren’t. “There are people who say there’s AI and everything else when it comes to this economy. So there are multiple factors at work that are having large and profound effects on different sectors of the economy, which is sometimes going in different directions.”

The Future
“It’s very hard in an environment like this to say six months from now we’re going to be here or a year from now we’re going to be here, because it’s not just a lack of clarity that we have on policy, but there’s a saying on Wall Street that I’ve grown to hate, which is ‘Wall Street hates uncertainty.’ What they really hate is unpredictability, and that’s really where we are today when it comes to policy.”
Stagflation
“We’re in a stagflation environment where inflation is higher than the Federal Reserve wants it to be and there is not much growth in the labor market. It’s not like the ’70s and ’80s and there are some really important differences between then and now, although there are some interesting similarities, as well.”
The Price of Gas
Insana said increases in the price of gas in 2025 are felt differently than in the 1970s. In the 1970s, cars averaged 11.9 miles per gallon. Today, that figure is over 30 mpg.
The Trade War
Insana noted President Trump’s tariffs and the trade war between the U.S. and China are lifting the price of manufactured goods and having some “spillover effect” in services.
He said the president’s threats of new 100% tariffs on all Chinese goods, which would take the average tariff on Chinese goods to 135%, would have not just an impact on consumer prices at home but also cut off the flow of goods and services between the United States and China and “deliver a pandemic-like supply shock for a lot of critical industries.”
Overall, there is an average 15% tariff rate in the United States, which Insana said is almost seven times higher than it was prior to President Trump taking office, and it’s the highest tariff the U.S. has imposed, broadly speaking, since the mid-1930s.
Insana said a new Goldman Sachs report has found consumers are absorbing about 55% of the tariff increases on prices.
The big question now, he said, is how the Supreme Court will rule on challenges to the tariffs. If ruled illegal, it would mean tariffs need to be refunded, which could total hundreds of billions of dollars.
The Federal Reserve
Insana said the Fed is in a tough position with the weakening labor market and rising inflation. He cited analysis by Heather Long, chief economist with Navy FCU, who has resurrected the notion of the “K-shaped” economy that affects people differently.
“The top 10% of wage earners in the United States account for 49.2% of all consumer spending, and then there’s everybody else, and the further down the income ladder the more disposable income is being eaten up by inflation,” he said.
Economists, noted Insana, have dug up the old Hamburger Helper Index from the 1970s to measure the economy’s effects on lower-income households.
Another sign of a slower economy: fewer boxes, like the ones used in shipping, are being produced.

Immigration Crackdown
Insana said the crackdown on immigration and increased deportations are having a “pronounced impact on the labor market” and affecting a wide variety of industries from agriculture to construction to home health care to hospitality.
Fewer field workers are expected to lead to fewer crops being harvested and resulting higher prices, he said.
Federal Workforce Reductions
Many federal workers who took buyouts as part of the DOGE reductions received their last paychecks on Sept. 30, Insana said, and will now be looking for jobs. But what effect that will have on employment is likely to remain unknown for a while because, ironically, the federal government is shut down.
All of that means the Federal Reserve will be missing some of the data it uses in setting rates. The FOMC is set to meet later this month.
Artificial Intelligence
The massive investments in AI on everything from infrastructure to power plants to chips are driving up electricity costs but also propping up economic figures, Insana said.
He quoted one economist who said 90% of the economic growth of 2.5% to 3% in the first half of the year came from AI investments.