NEW YORK–That fact that in 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 economic forecasts largely underestimated where mortgage rates would end each year hasn’t stopped a new forecast for 2026 being made. It is based on the predictions made by 21 separate estimates and found that 6.18% is the expectation for the average rate on the 30-year mortgage this year.
Fast Company noted that among the 17 mortgage forecasts rounded up by ResiClub as 2025 got underway, the average prediction was that 30-year fixed mortgage rates would average 6.33% in Q4 2025.
“At the time we published that roundup, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was sitting at 7.03%. What happened?” asked Fast Co. “The 30-year fixed mortgage rate ended up averaging 6.23% in Q4 2025.”
For its 2026 mortgage rate roundup, the publication said ResiClub collected 21 mortgage rate forecasts. Some were publicly available, though most were gathered through the ResiClub 2026 Housing Economist Survey, which it fielded in December 2025. Rather than asking only about Q4, Fast Co. said it asked respondents to provide their forecast for the full 2026 calendar year.
Skepticism, But…
“While ResiClub approaches rate forecasts with a healthy dose of skepticism—for example, if the labor market were to unexpectedly weaken, rates could drop more than anticipated—there is still value in understanding where economic models predict mortgage rates will head,” according to Fast Co.
Below are 21 mortgage rate forecasts sorted from highest to lowest, according to Fast Co.
