NEW YORK—It’s Oct. 1, and every year as the calendar turns into the final quarter familiar patterns emerge that shape consumer behavior, financial markets and even policymaking in Washington–but which in 2025 also include many unique factors and trends.
Here’s a look at some of what Q4 is expected to bring.
Credit Union and Banking Impacts
For credit unions, Q4 brings a complicated balance of opportunities and pressures. Deposits can slip as members spend more heavily. Interchange income rises with card use, but fraud attempts and dispute cases increase. Seasonal loan promotions, skip-a-pay programs and balance-transfer offers are common. Mortgage activity slows, but holiday consolidation and HELOC marketing pick up.
Boards typically use the quarter to approve next year’s budgets, finalize asset-liability management adjustments and set marketing calendars. At the same time, community-focused efforts—from food drives to scholarship announcements—become highly visible.
(The CU Daily provides coverage of such local efforts in its CommUnity section.)
The Future of NCUA Independence
Perhaps the biggest Q4 issue that will potentially have the longest-term effect on credit unions and NCUA is a Supreme Court hearing in December involving an FTC commissioner who had been fired by President Trump and who is challenging the firing of commissioners/board members at independent agencies.
The case is similar to that in the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals in the case involving Todd Harper and Tanya Otsuka, the two Democratic NCUA board members fired by President Trump in April of this year. That court has delayed scheduled Nov. 21 oral arguments in that case pending the Supreme Court hearing.
As the CU Daily reported here, at the core of the case is the Federal Credit Union Act and the president’s authority to fire members of the independent agency. The plaintiffs are arguing their firings violate the FCU Act. The administration says the president has the authority to remove board members of independent agencies.
Holiday Spending and Retail Rush
The holiday shopping season dominates Q4 and credit unions will be rolling out their own related tie-ins and promotions.
It begins with Halloween promotions and accelerates into Black Friday (Nov. 28), Small Business Saturday (Nov. 29), Cyber Monday (Dec. 1) and December’s gift rush. Carriers will be adding surcharges, retailers will be highlighting shipping deadlines and returns spike immediately after Dec. 25.
Gift card sales and buy now, pay later services see their strongest demand of the year, while charitable giving surges around Giving Tuesday and year-end tax deadlines.
Expiration of the EV Tax Credit
Effective Oct. 1, the $7,500 federal tax credit on electric vehibles is no more. Credit unions and other lenders saw a surge in EV loans as sales spiked ahead of the expiration of the tax credit, and that sudden $7,500 increase in the cost of EVs is expected to drain the battery life of sales. Lenders will need to get creative if they wish to maintain volume, including longer terms to bring down payments, bundling financing to include home-charging units, leasing, and more.
Financial Planning and Market Moves
Markets enter the season with talk of a “Santa Claus rally” as investors look for year-end boosts. For households, Q4 means tax-loss harvesting, required minimum distributions and “use it or lose it” deadlines for flexible spending accounts. Benefit open enrollment also adds to the financial workload, with employers, Medicare and ACA marketplaces driving decisions.
Corporate and Business-to-Business Dynamics
For companies, it’s no secret the end of the year means a final sales push. Quotas and revenue goals intensify as procurement teams spend “use it or lose it” budgets. Many technology firms enter code freezes around holidays, slowing product launches but ensuring stability during peak demand.
Hiring typically slows until January as bonus and compensation cycles close.
Government Timelines and Policy Announcements
The federal fiscal year begins Oct. 1, but this year, of course, it begins with a government shutdown.
There are a number of elections taking place in November across the country, including for a governor in New Jersey and Virginia. In Texas and Tennessee, special elections are being held for open seats in Congress. And numerous large cities, including Atlanta, Boston, Detroit, New York City and Seattle, will be holding local and municipal elections.
Travel, Weather and Energy Shifts
Thanksgiving and December holidays mark the busiest travel periods of the year, and promotions for various credit cards are expected to be heavy. Airlines, hotels and highways face peak demand. Weather shifts from hurricane season to winter storms, driving changes in insurance claims. Energy demand spikes with the start of heating season, affecting gas and utility costs that this year, could affect many members whose budgets are already stretched thin.
Advertising, Media and Cultural Trends
Credit unions will face increased media costs in many markets, as advertising spend also peaks in Q4, particularly for retailers, consumer brands and technology firms. Shopping days such as Singles’ Day (Nov. 11), Black Friday and Super Saturday will anchor major campaigns this year.
Meanwhile, media outlets and companies prepare “year-in-review” and “next-year outlook” reports to capitalize on attention heading into January.
Operational and Cybersecurity Pressures
Organizations face higher cyber-risk during the quarter as criminals exploit shopping volume and consumer distraction. Banks and credit unions report spikes in phishing, account-takeover attempts and payments fraud during Q4. Vendors also push renewals and compliance audits to close before year-end.
A Predictable but Pressured Quarter
“Observers say what makes Q4 unique is how consistently it blends celebration with stress,” according to one analysis. “The season delivers a flood of spending, traveling and giving, alongside policy deadlines, budget sprints and fraud risks. For consumers, businesses and credit unions alike, the year’s final quarter is less a finish line than a sprint through a gauntlet of recurring pressures and opportunities.”
