IRVINE, Calif.–A new analysis is forecasting the car and truck market is about to get worse, and not just because of any potential tariffs. 

In this case, it’s because new car sales bottomed out in 2022, the peak year of COVID-19 era shortages that hobbled assembly lines., stated USA Today in its report, adding, “Now, that slow year for new cars is coming back to haunt used car shoppers. 

“The three-year-old vehicle is widely regarded as the gold standard for used automobiles,” USA Today reported. “After three years of life, a car or truck is old enough to have depreciated sharply in value, but young enough to have many good miles left in the tank. And in 2025, three-year-old vehicles will be in short supply.”

‘Historically Bad Year’

USA Today cited a report by Edmunds that is predicting 2025 will be a historically bad year for three-year-old cars because just 13.8 million vehicles were manufactured.

Edmunds is also predicting that leased vehicles, in particular, will all but vanish from used car inventories in 2025.  

“Car and truck leases plummeted in 2022. Three years later, Edmunds expects leased vehicles to make up only 18% of used car sales in 2025, the lowest figure since the Great Recession era,” the Edmunds forecast states, according to USA Today.

“Between 2019 and 2022, the annual volume of used vehicles coming off of leases topped four million,” the report said. “This year, Edmunds forecasts that figure to plummet to around two million.”

Prices Near Records

The USA Today analysis further noted that the inventory crunch “could not come at a worse time. The average price for a new vehicle in January was a near-record $48,118, according to Edmunds. The average used vehicle cost a more modest $24,402.”

The report added that any potential tariffs—which were delayed by a month by the Trump Administration—will only serve to increase prices on new vehicles, likely bumping up costs of used vehicles, as well.