NEW YORK–Credit unions will want to pay attention to consumer sentiment, which is often a harbinger for the likelihood to borrow.

In a new survey by the Conference Board, consumer confidence slid 7.2 points this month to a 92.9, its lowest level since January 2021. The decline extends a trend that began in December, after the presidential election. March’s decline was similar to February’s, underscoring the growing pessimism among U.S. consumers., CNN noted in its analysis.

“Not only are Americans expecting higher inflation this year, but more of them are also predicting that the economy will slip into a recession, the Conference Board survey showed,” CNN reported. “That toxic combination of weakening growth and accelerating inflation resembles stagflation,” which, as the CU Daily reported earlier, has become a concern for the Federal Reserve.

Additional Findings

The new Conference Board survey also found Americans’ expectations “for income, business, and labor market conditions” in the coming year fell sharply in March, declining 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest level in 12 years. Meanwhile, the share of respondents expecting a recession in the next 12 months held steady in March at a nine-month high, the survey found. 

Stephen Miran, chair of President Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, said he isn’t concerned by the drop in consumer confidence. “Folks often let their political views influence their views of the economy, which tends to manifest in the confidence data,” Miran said during in a CNBC interview.

‘Less Telling’

Miran told the news outlet that in his view, soft data such as the consumer confidence survey is less telling about the state of the economy compared to hard data like jobs reports, which paint a somewhat better picture.

Analysts told CNN they expect the Fed will hold off until any rate cuts longer than expected and take a wait-and-see approach with the economy.