TAMPA, Fla.–Debit and credit card transactions and purchases by credit unions members strengthened in February, despite a backdrop of continued slow job growth, subdued consumer sentiment and rising global tensions, according to the March edition of the Velera Payments Index.
On a positive note, the 12-month rate of inflation through February held steady at 2.4%, Velera noted in releasing the report.
Key Takeaways
Velera said key takeaways for February include:
- Year-over-year growth in transactions and purchases in February was strong across both debit and credit. Debit purchases increased by 7%, with the Money Services and Goods sectors accounting for two-thirds of that growth. Credit purchases were up 4.4%, with the Goods and the Service sectors accounting for 68% of the entire increase.
- For February, debit transactions were up 7% and credit transactions rose by 4%.
- Since the company’s last delinquency Deep Dive (February 2025), Velera reported that delinquencies have begun trending upward after steadily declining for the first 10 months of last year. Overall credit card delinquencies for February 2025 were 2.66%, up 0.16% year over year.
- Additionally, “we saw higher delinquency rates among younger age groups, as evidenced by the notable increase in the youngest generational segment (Younger Gen Z), up 10.67% year over year to 13.69% in February 2026.” Velera reported.
Additional Data Points & Findings
Other data points covered in the new Velera report include:
Inflation
CPI rose 0.3% in February, with the 12-month inflation rate remaining steady at 2.4%. Shelter was the primary driver of the monthly increase.
“Gasoline prices have increased sharply, rising $0.57 per gallon (or 19%) since the start of the U.S./Israel war with Iran on Feb. 28,” Velera said in its analysis. “It is unknown how long the market will experience higher energy prices because of the conflict or what the impact will be on the U.S. economy. As an informal calculation, each $10 increase in the price of a barrel of oil equates to a 0.2% increase (approximately) in inflation.”
Consumer Sentiment
Velera noted that in its February 2026 results, the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment essentially remained flat, posting a 0.2-point gain to finish at 56.6 – down 13% year over year. Nearly half of the consumers surveyed this February cited higher prices eroding their personal finances. The Conference Board reported that consumer sentiment inched higher in the Consumer Confidence Index in February, up 2.2 points to 91.2, while the January results were upwardly revised to 89.0. The uptick in February results came from softening pessimistic expectations, although the index remains well below its recent four-year peak in November 2024 (112.8). It should be noted that these results were gathered prior to the United States/Israel military action in Iran.
Job Growth
The Velera report notes that the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that job growth fell in February, shedding 92,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, or 7.5 million people.
“The WSJ poll of economists forecast 50,000 jobs added in February. Additionally, the collective job numbers for December and January were reduced by 69,000,” the analysis states. “February job losses were mainly in the healthcare sector. These reductions were partially reflected in strikes in California and Hawaii. Employment in information and the federal government also trended downward. The February ADP jobs report, which tracks changes in U.S. private employment, reported an increase of 63,000 jobs. Growth was centered on education and health services, adding 58,000 jobs. Employment in construction and information also increased during this period, whereas job declines were noted in the professional and business services and manufacturing sectors. The ADP payroll population represents 26 million U.S. private-sector employees.”
Delinquency Analysis
“What we’re seeing in this month’s data is a reminder that delinquency trends don’t move in a straight line. Yes, overall delinquencies are up compared with a year ago, but the story underneath is more nuanced,” David Knowles, SVP of Disputes & Collections Operations at Velera and president of TriVerity, said in a statement. “Younger consumers are feeling the most strain, and lower‑income households continue to show sharper swings in both delinquencies and credit utilization. At the same time, subprime borrowers have been remarkably steady — something we wouldn’t have predicted a few years ago. Put together, it paints a picture of a consumer landscape that’s still adjusting to higher costs and shifting financial cushions, with very different experiences depending on age and income.”
