NEW YORK — With credit unions and their members alike wondering how long the threat of inflation will keep rates elevated, a new analysis by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has found that more than a year after the Trump administration’s tariffs took effect, about half of businesses that pay the duties are continuing to raise prices or plan to do so in the coming months.
The findings, published in a New York Fed blog post, suggest the inflationary effects of tariffs continue to move through the economy as some companies delay passing higher costs on to customers because of contracts, competitive concerns or uncertainty surrounding future trade policy.
Among service firms that reported paying tariffs, 31% said they plan to raise prices within the next six months, while another 16% expect to do so after six months, according to the New York Fed.
Manufacturers reported similar plans, with 37% saying they intend to increase prices within six months and another 7% planning price hikes beyond that timeframe.
Two Reasons Cited
According to the New York Fed, businesses cited two primary reasons for delaying price increases:
- Existing contracts that prevent immediate price adjustments until agreements expire.
- A strategy of spreading price increases over time to avoid burdening customers with a single, large increase.
The economists also said uncertainty surrounding future tariff policy is influencing pricing decisions.
“Moreover, uncertainty surrounding future tariff policies — including potential rate changes, exemptions or tariff responses from other countries — may be causing some firms to adopt cautious, incremental pricing strategies rather than making large, discrete adjustments,” the economists wrote. “This behavior extends the period over which tariff-related price pressures work their way through the economy.”
Additional Findings
The survey found that two-thirds of service firms and nearly all manufacturers import at least some of the materials or components used in their businesses. Among those companies, 40% of service firms and 70% of manufacturers said they directly paid tariffs during the previous 12 months.
Among firms that paid tariffs directly:
- 29% of service firms and 18% of manufacturers said they had fully passed tariff costs on to customers through higher prices.
- 21% of service firms and 30% of manufacturers said they do not plan any additional price increases.
- 3% of service firms and 8% of manufacturers said tariffs had little effect on their costs.
The findings indicate that tariff-related price adjustments remain an ongoing process despite the duties having been in place for more than a year.
Shift is Spotted
The latest analysis also highlights a shift from earlier surveys conducted by the New York Fed. In June 2025, about two months after the tariffs took effect, the New York Fed reported that roughly three-quarters of businesses in the manufacturing and service sectors had already passed higher tariff-related costs on to consumers.
Earlier research released by the New York Fed in February 2025 also found that while foreign exporters were absorbing a growing share of tariff costs, U.S. importers continued to bear most of the burden. As of November 2025, foreign exporters were paying an estimated 14% of tariff costs, while U.S. importers absorbed the remaining 86%, according to the New York Fed.
