ST. PETERSBURG, Fla.– Growth in debit remained consistent, while growth in credit activity improved in September, according to the October edition of the Velera Payments Index.
According to the report, debit purchases increased by 5.3%, with the Money Services, Goods and Services sectors accounting for 89% of the growth. The only decline was in Grocery.
Credit purchases were up 2.9%, with the Service, Goods and Restaurant sectors accounting for 86% of the entire increase. For September, debit transactions were up 3.4% and credit transactions rose by 2.4%, Velera reported.
Other Economic Indicators in the Velera Payments Index include:
Consumer Sentiment
The Index noted the October 2025 University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment remains virtually unchanged from September, with a slight decrease from 55.1 to 55.0.
“This month’s index is more positive than anticipated, but it also indicates that consumers perceive very few changes in the economic outlook from last month,” Velera said.
For the Consumer Confidence Index, consumer sentiment declined in September, down 3.6 points to 94.2. Consumers’ assessment of both business conditions and current job availability declined for the month. It is now the ninth consecutive month of declining sentiment on job openings.
“From a political perspective, sentiment improved slightly for both Republicans and Democrats, but notably dropped among Independents,” according to the analysis.
Labor & Employment
Due to the government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) update is unavailable.
“Instead, we look to the September update of the ADP jobs report, which highlights a reduction in U.S. private employment jobs by 32,000,” Velera said.
The report point to a poll conducted by the WSJ in which economists expected the ADP update to show an increase of 45,000 new jobs.
“This is a continued sign of the weakening job market. While the ADP report does not contain government jobs, it is based on 26 million workers whose employers use ADP. The ADP payroll population represents 19% of overall U.S. private-sector employment (136 million),” the company said.
The Velera analysis continued, “As the BLS previously reported, one of the notable contributors to inflation over the past few years has been rising housing prices. Within the Payments Index data, as part of the Service Sector, year-to-date debit purchase activity for Real Estate – Rentals is up 11% through September. In the latest update to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index decreased 0.1% month over month and increased 1.7% year over year. This marks the fifth straight month annual gains have slid, and is the smallest annual increase since July 2023.”
The Fed & Rates
The report notes there are two Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings remaining in 2025, with the next concluding on Oct. 29.
“While Fed Chair Jerome Powell has ‘penciled in” two rate cuts for this year, the lack of short-term updates on key data points provides less visibility when making rate-cut decisions.” Velera reported. “The FOMC is funded through interest on government securities and not through the congressional budgetary process; therefore, it is not affected by the current shutdown.”
The last FOMC meeting of 2025 is scheduled to conclude on Dec. 10.
‘Moving Beyond Spend & Get’
“With the holiday season approaching, we are seeing clients moving beyond the traditional ‘spend and get’ campaigns and incorporating behavioral trends to encourage members to spend, while also taking advantage of digital capabilities like mobile wallets and tap-and-go,” Jason Medick, VP-marketing consulting, Advisors Plus Consulting, with Velera, said in a statement. “As the holiday shopping season seems to start earlier every year, we are also seeing holiday campaigns starting in October to match consumer spending patterns. With 2025 anticipated to be our busiest year ever for custom campaigns, it’s important for credit unions to be in market with incentives to capture consumer holiday spend – and ensure their cards are loaded in members’ digital wallets to maintain top-of-wallet status.”
How to Get Report
For a copy of the report, go here.
