NEW YORK— Households’ inflation expectations inched up at the short-term horizon while remaining steady at medium- and longer-term horizons, while expectations for unemployment and job losses worsened and job-finding expectations fell to a new low, according to the August 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data.
The survey found household spending and income growth expectations stayed broadly unchanged.
The survey was conducted from Aug. 1 through Aug. 31, 2025.
According to the New York Fed:
Inflation
- Median inflation expectations rose by 0.1 percentage point to 3.2% at the one-year-ahead horizon in August. Expectations were unchanged at the three-year (3.0%) and five-year (2.9%) horizons.
- The measure of disagreement among respondents — the gap between the 75th and 25th percentiles of inflation expectations — narrowed at the one-year and three-year horizons and was flat at the five-year horizon.
- Uncertainty about future inflation outcomes increased at the one- and three-year horizons but declined at the five-year horizon.
Home Price Expectations
- Median home price growth expectations held steady at 3.0% for the third straight month, continuing a narrow range between 3.0% and 3.3% since August 2023.
- Median year-ahead expectations for commodity price changes fell 0.9 percentage point for college costs (7.8%), 1.0 point for rent (6.0%) and 0.4 point for medical care (8.8%). Price change expectations for gas (3.9%) and food (5.5%) were unchanged for the third consecutive month.
Labor Market
- Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations slipped 0.1 percentage point to 2.5%, below the 12-month trailing average of 2.8%. The series has stayed between 2.5% and 3.0% since May 2021.
- Mean unemployment expectations — the probability that the U.S. jobless rate will be higher in a year — rose 1.7 percentage points to 39.1%, above the 12-month trailing average of 38.1%.
- The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months edged up 0.1 percentage point to 14.5%, above its 12-month average of 14.0%. The mean probability of leaving a job voluntarily decreased 0.1 point to 18.9%, slightly below its 12-month average.
- The mean perceived probability of finding a job after a loss dropped 5.8 percentage points to 44.9%, the lowest reading since the series began in June 2013. The decline was broad-based across age, education and income groups, but steepest among those with a high school education or less.
Household Finance
- Median expected household income growth remained unchanged at 2.9% for the second month, matching its 12-month average. Median household spending growth expectations ticked up 0.1 point to 5.0%, remaining in a 4.8% to 5.2% range since February 2025.
- Perceptions of credit access versus a year ago improved, with fewer households saying credit is harder to obtain. Expectations for future credit availability deteriorated somewhat, as fewer respondents anticipated easier access in the year ahead.
- The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment within three months rose 0.8 point to 13.1%, still below the 12-month average of 13.5%.
- The median expectation for year-ahead tax changes at current income levels increased 0.5 point to 3.4%. Median expected growth in government debt dropped 2.5 points to 6.6%.
- The mean perceived probability of higher average savings account interest rates in 12 months rose 0.7 point to 24.3%.
- Perceptions of current household financial situations worsened, with more households reporting declines and fewer reporting improvements compared with a year ago. Year-ahead expectations became more dispersed, with more households expecting both better and worse financial situations, the New York Fed said.
- The mean perceived probability of higher U.S. stock prices in 12 months rose 0.6 point to 38.9%.
