NEW YORK–JPMorgan has raised its forecast for the U.S. economy entering a recession before year-end to 60% in the wake of President Trump’s plans to add tariffs on products from nearly every country in the world.

The bank was not alone, with other market forecasters also issuing warnings. 

“Disruptive US policies have been recognized as the biggest risk to the global outlook all year,” J Morgan’s chief economist Bruce Kasman stated in a note to clients. “The latest news reinforces our fears, as US trade policy has turned decisively less business-friendly than we had anticipated. We thus emphasize that these policies, if sustained, would likely push the US and possibly global economy into recession this year. An update of our probability scenario tree makes this point, raising the risk of a recession this year to 60%.”

‘Functional Tax Increase’

In the report Kasman dubbed the tariffs a “functional tax increase” on U.S. household and business purchases of imported goods, and said they effectively raise the U.S. average tax rate “by roughly 22%-pts to an estimated 24%….A hike of this size would be on par with the largest tax hike since WWII.”

In addition, Goldman Sachs also raised its forecast for a recession, but it is not as pessimistic as JPMorgan. Goldman believes the probability of a recession is the U.S. is 35%, up from its prior forecast of 20%.

In a statement, economists with Goldman said it sees a recession as more likely because of “sharp recent deterioration in household and business confidence, and statements from White House officials indicating greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness in pursuit of these policies.”

Also issuing various levels of warning around a potential recession were Barclays, BofA Global Research, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Marktrts and UBS Global Wealth Management.