LONDON–A new analysis is estimating that up to $1 trillion could exit emerging market bank deposits for stablecoins by late 2028.
The investment bank Standard Chartered said it expects an uptrend in stablecoin savings in EM economies even as areas like the U.S. enforce regulation, according to The Block.
Standard Chartered estimates that up to $1 trillion may shift from emerging market bank deposits into stablecoins over the next three years, as dollar-pegged tokens give households and companies a low-friction path to USD exposure outside local lenders.
‘USD-Bank Accounts’
Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, and Madhur Jha, global economist and head of thematic research, argue that these coins have effectively become “USD-based bank accounts” for many EM users, according to The Block.
According to The Block analysis, historically, emerging markets have been hotspots for stablecoin adoption, primarily due to their large unbanked populations. It noted Standard Chartered is forecasting this dynamic could intensify even under the U.S. GENIUS Act’s zero-yield requirement for compliant issuers, because “return of capital matters more than return on capital.”
“While the recently passed U.S. GENIUS Act aims to mitigate deposit flight by prohibiting US-compliant stablecoin issuers from paying direct yields, stablecoins are still likely to be adopted even in the absence of yield,” Standard Chartered stated.
The Projection
The bank is projecting global stablecoin market value to reach $2 trillion by end-2028 — a forecast it notes the U.S. Treasury has referenced — and estimates that about two-thirds of today’s supply functions as savings in EM bank accounts.
The Block further noted that analysts predict that EM stablecoin “savings” could potentially rise from roughly $173 billion today to $1.22 trillion by 2028, implying more than $1 trillion in deposit outflows from EM banks.
