DETROIT — Auto lending remains the bread and butter of many credit unions, but U.S. auto sales could decline significantly over the next 15 years as demographic shifts, rising vehicle costs and changing consumer behavior reduce the number of people buying new cars, according to a new analysis.
CNBC reported that consulting firm Bain & Company projects annual U.S. light-vehicle sales could fall by more than 2 million units by 2040, creating a more competitive environment for automakers.
The U.S. market last reached a record 17.6 million vehicle sales in 2016. Some forecasts now suggest sales may never return to that level.
“The competition in the U.S. is going to be ferocious,” Bain partner Mark Gottfredson told CNBC. “There’s too many automakers and too many brands competing for the consumers. The market is going to have to consolidate.”
Demographics Drive Changes
According to CNBC, Bain attributes much of the expected decline to slowing population growth.
Key factors cited include:
- The U.S. fertility rate fell to about 1.6 births per woman in 2025, below the replacement rate of 2.1, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
- Bain expects restrictive immigration policies to cut historical net migration roughly in half over the next 15 years.
- The consulting firm said the combination would reduce the number of future vehicle buyers.
“The population numbers…are baked in,” Gottfredson told CNBC, noting the number of future driving-age Americans is already largely determined by current birth rates.
Younger Buyers Purchase Fewer Cars
CNBC reported younger Americans are delaying or forgoing vehicle purchases.
Among the trends:
- About 50% of 16-year-olds now have driver’s licenses, down from nearly 70% between 1966 and 1984, according to Bain.
- S&P Global Mobility found new vehicle registrations among consumers ages 18 to 34 declined from 12% in the first quarter of 2021 to less than 10% by mid-2025.
- Buyers 55 and older now account for nearly half of all new vehicle registrations and have held the largest share for eight consecutive quarters.
“The engine behind it is affordability,” Craig Daitch, founder and president of automotive research firm Telemetry, told CNBC, noting monthly payments on new vehicles have climbed about 30% over the past four years and nearly one in five new vehicles now carries a monthly payment exceeding $1,000.
Robotaxis & Longer Lasting Vehicles
CNBC reported Bain believes widespread adoption of autonomous ride-hailing services could further reduce vehicle ownership.
The firm’s research suggests:
- The share of licensed drivers could decline by 2 to 3 percentage points, to about 85%.
- Vehicles per licensed driver could fall from 1.2 to 1.1.
- That would equate to 10% to 20% of U.S. households eliminating one vehicle.
Meanwhile, vehicles are staying on the road longer. CNBC reported S&P Global Mobility estimates the average vehicle age reached a record 12.8 years in 2025.
Bain said the annual vehicle deregistration rate has fallen from about 6% in 2000 to 5% in 2025 and could decline further to 4.4% by 2040, largely because consumers are keeping vehicles longer.
One Area of Uncertainty
However, analysts told CNBC uncertainty remains over the long-term durability of electric vehicle batteries and manufacturers’ willingness to support increasingly software-dependent vehicles for decades.
AutoForecast Solutions projects U.S. vehicle sales will remain relatively flat at around 16 million annually through 2033, CNBC reported.
“Today’s vehicles can’t have a limitation of five to 10 years,” Sam Fiorani, the firm’s vice president of global vehicle forecasting, told CNBC. “It’s not practical for a person who’s spending $50,000 or $100,000 that it’s going to be junk in less than a decade.”
